Rants, raves and thoughts by Bob Hodgen

Recent reports have greatly increased the estimated output of the Deepwater Horizon’s oil leak.  This raises doubts on the “official” numbers released by BP.  How big is the leak, really?

Nobody really knows.

I’m not an engineer, but I like to indulge in rough “back of the envelope” estimations.

Oil Pipe Diameter = 20 inches inside diameter.

At 20 inches diameter the area of the open pipe is 314 square inches (10 squared times Pi).  If the oil is under 10,000 pounds of pressure per square inch relative to the seafloor pressure, then the total force across the end of the pipe is over 3 million pounds!

If the oft quoted 10,00 psi number is absolute pressure then we have to subtract the 5000 foot deep seafloor pressure of  2237 psi.  You then get a relative pressure of  7763 psi.  Multiplying by 314 square inches gives a total pressure of over 2.4 million pounds!

You can see, it’s not going to be easy to cap the end of the pipe!  The flow rate must be incredible.

You can understand why BP is loath to give out estimates of the leakage rate.  The scale and magnitude of this oil spill will be unprecedented.

The oil has reached the Loop Current.  It won’t be long before there are reports of oil in the Florida Keys and on the beaches of Miami.  From there, the Gulf Stream will carry it up the East Coast and into the North Atlantic.

We may never be able to shut the leak down.  It could continue until the reservoir is emptied.  And that could take years.  The scale of the disaster would be global.

We Brought This on Ourselves.

I remember, 30 years ago when Jimmy Carter was in the White House.  He told us that we were addicted to oil.  He told us that we had to change.  He lowered the speed limits and mandated gas mileage standards for new cars.  He turned down the thermostats and wore sweaters indoors in the winter.  Jimmy Carter wasn’t a popular President.

Why the hell didn’t we listen to him?

Ronald Reagan became our next President.  Reagan told us what we wanted to hear.  He told us that America was special, that WE didn’t need to conserve energy, he said that our way of life was sacred.  Reagan rolled back many of the Carter initiatives and de-regulated business.  People bought larger cars and SUV’s believing that they were safer.  America consumed more and more energy.  We fought wars for oil.

Now, most of the easy to reach oil has been tapped out.  We have to drill deeper and in more remote places to reach the remaining oil.  The Deepwater Horizon accident is the result of pushing the technological envelope.  But, the accident is also the inevitable result of de-regulation, limited oversight, and big business cutting corners in the name of profit.

Ultimately, the disaster is the result of the American people’s short term greed and selfishness.